Purdue-Penn State, how do I predict thee? Let me count the ways.

I could compare how both teams ended their 2021 seasons.

I could look at game history or study current lineups.

I could hammer down with absolute bias.

Other sports prognosticators will do some combination of the above. Or even put together a predictive model that will not only predict the winner but the score, time of possession, and how many beers will be sold at Ross-Ade.

But I say to heck with it all. Most of my life decisions are based on somewhat arbitrary data (SAD) and I like my predictions to be the same.

Remember, Remember, Only Twice in September

Since 1951, Purdue is 3-15-1 against Penn State. That fact alone may be enough to predict a Nittany Lion win. Some other tidbits that can be pulled from their game history:

• Their last game was in 2019 at Penn State; Penn State won 35-7.
• The last game at Purdue was in 2016; Penn State won 62-24.
• The last time Purdue won was in 2004; Purdue won 20-13.

Penn State has dominated. That is all fine and dandy but if you look at the game dates, they have only played each other twice in September. In 1952, they played at Penn State and the game ended in a tie with a score of 20-20.

The next time they played in September was in 2000 at Penn State. Penn State won that game 22-20.

So, in two September games, we have a combined point differential of two. Since I am putting a crap ton (official unit of measurement) of weight on this fact, I am guessing the score will be separated by three points or less. Which is somewhat in alignment with the Vegas spread of Penn State at -3.5.

80 Degrees of Separation

The research on this next bit of SAD is spotty. But from what I can tell, within the last three years, Penn State has only played one away game on a day where the high was 80 degrees or more. This was on October 9, 2021 against Iowa University. The temperature around kickoff was 80 degrees. Iowa won that game 23-20.

In Purdue’s case, in home games within the last three years, they had a game against the Minnesota Gophers on September 28, 2019 where the high was 80 degrees. Purdue lost that game 31-38.

The high for today is 86 degrees and it should be within a couple of degrees of 80 degrees during kickoff.

Mascot-o

Mascot data is always fun. In the last three years:

• At home, Purdue is 3-6 versus football teams with an animal mascot and 0-1 versus football teams with a cat mascot.
• In away games, Penn State is 2-4 versus football teams with a non-animal mascot and 2-1 versus football teams with a human mascot.

Most people would refer to Purdue Pete as a human with a wide range of emotion and charming eyes.

SAD Prediction

Penn State wins. If I wanted a side of extra arbitrary with my prediction, I would say that Penn State wins with a final score of 19-16.

On that note, I will likely spend the rest of the Purdue football season over correcting for my early betrayal.